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The Curious Case of Falling Freshman Numbers in a Growing College Market
There has been a 5% drop in first-year college enrollment this fall, a remarkable decline that researchers are struggling to explain. The most apparent factors include financial aid issues and shifting attitudes about the value of a college degree. Despite this, overall undergraduate enrollment grew by 3%, driven by high schoolers taking college courses and older students returning to complete degrees.
You can read more about this phenomenon in USA TODAY; in “Fewer High Schoolers Went to College this Fall. It's Unclear Why,” reporter Zachary Schermele writes that the largest enrollment drops were seen at four-year public and private nonprofit colleges, with community colleges also experiencing declines, albeit less severe. Researchers have stressed the difficulty in pinpointing a single cause for the freshman decline.
Looking ahead, colleges face a "demographic cliff," with declining birth rates set to reduce the overall number of high school graduates in coming years. This trend means that it’s even more urgent now for schools to better understand why fewer students are choosing to attend college.
College enrollment rates have long been viewed as an indicator of student success, and of the overall health of the education system. High enrollment rates suggest that students are prepared for higher education, which can lead to better job opportunities and higher earnings. And college enrollment rates reflect the quality of education provided by schools and districts, along with the socioeconomic factors that influence student outcomes.
But are student loans always worth the debt? Public attitudes towards academia have shifted within the last decade, and many career paths can be accessed through alternative routes. With the need for more skilled tradespeople only becoming more apparent, the university path may be becoming less obvious, and less appealing, to many students finishing high school.